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Iran Negotiations: Implications for Sanctions and Business Opportunities

After eight years of crippling sanctions, a diplomatic breakthrough and the lifting of Iran sanctions are possible. This would unleash considerable investment and trade opportunities.

Enquirisk draws on leading specialists to produce and regularly update a uniquely insightful and succinct report on the prospects for doing business in and with Iran. In our report we assess the likely outcome of the next wave of negotiations and the implications of a range of negotiating outcomes for key industries.

In July, Iran and the Western powers of the P5+1 group (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), decided to extend the interim agreement on the nuclear issue to 24 November. 

Our report addresses a number of crucial questions:

  • How likely is the next round of negotiations to lead to a full or partial lifting of sanctions?
  • What are the chances of further diplomatic stalemate instead?

In order to assess these question, we carry out an in-depth analysis of the specific steps that Iran will be required to take in order to have specific UN, US and EU sanctions reversed. We also look into the likelihood that opposition by hardliners in the US Congress and domestic push-back in Iran will hamper negotiations.

For each main negotiating outcome, we assess the following questions: 

  • What would the specific business implications be?
  • How would negotiations affect the economic sectors that have enjoyed sanction relief but could not yet take advantage of the opportunity?
  • We explain why and how key sectors (such as automotive and insurance) are poised to benefit particularly strongly from a final agreement. 
  • We also analyse the constraints that European companies and banks will continue to face due to secondary nature of US legislation against Iran, should a deal fail to materialise.

Western Sanctions and 'Pivot to Asia': Implications for Russia's Oil and Gas

The Russia-West crisis is likely to induce fundamental changes in the way the Russian oil and gas sector operates.

Enquirisk produces and constantly updates uniquely insightful, succinct and timely reports on this issue. We analyse the likely implications of current and upcoming US and EU sanctions on the regulation of the industry, the standing of local business-political players and of foreign investors, and the prospects for key oil and gas projects - for example the strategic Yamal LNG project.

The report highlights the implications for:

  • Factional conflicts among business and political players in the oil and gas industry.

  • Regulatory and informal methods for the government to extract revenue from oil and gas.

  • Patterns of patronage at the core of Putin’s management of the industry.

  • Specific Russian efforts to re-orient energy exports towards Asia.

  • Oil and gas projects involving Rosneft, ExxonMobil, Novatek and several western financial and oil and gas companies.

  • Russia’s ability to develop unconventional frontier regions.

With Gazprom's East Siberian pipeline sales now secured, some key issues remain unanswered: 

  • What role will third-party producers have in the operation of the 'Power of Siberia' pipeline?
  • Does Gazprom have a strategy for Vladivostok LNG?
  • With sanctions having impacted Novatek's Yamal LNG, what is the future of Russian LNG sales to the Asian pacific market?  

 

The reports are regularly updated to reflect our latest analysis.

 

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