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Founder & Director of Enquirisk 

Russia and CIS Political Risk Specialist


Recommendations

Imported from LinkedIn

Filippo Gamba

Managing Director at Inspiratia

I have worked closely with Carlo over several years while managing Control Risks' PRIME service (the firm's political risk monitoring platform). Carlo has consistently been the team's most prolific contributor to the service. He has produced dozens of highly original, business-oriented and authoritative political risk briefs, dealing with a wide range of economic sectors in the Former Soviet Union, with a specific focus on Russia and Ukraine. His work has consistently attracted positive client feedback. Carlo has also been very active and effective in interacting directly with clients and providing analytical support via email, phone or face-to-face meetings. In delivering excellent value to our clients, Carlo has consistently demonstrated reliability, dedication and professionalism and I am confident that he will excel in his future professional enterprises.

May 4, 2012, Filippo managed Carlo indirectly at Control Risks


Jake Stratton

Director at Control Risks

During his six year in Control Risks’ Global Risk Analysis division, Carlo was our lead analyst for the high-profile Russia & CIS region. As such, Carlo was a key member of a team that has consistently exceeded its targets. Through many successful projects he demonstrated an excellent grasp of the politics and business environment of the Russia & CIS region. His work helped many of Control Risks’ clients take crucial investment decisions or monitor their security and operational risk exposure in the region. He developed an extensive network of contacts in the region, drawn from a mixture of academia, ex-government, journalism, ex-law enforcement and commerce. 

In the course of his work for Control Risks Carlo received client praise for a wide range of contributions - from incisive and timely short country briefs, to in-person presentations, from in-depth bespoke reports to speaking engagements at major client events. He was a regular expert commentator on regional risk issues at external conferences and in the international news media. Moving beyond his regional remit, Carlo also took the lead in the Global Risk Analysis team’s work on the general methodology of political risk analysis. 

Carlo was always very professional in the way he has conducted himself and approached his work diligently and methodically, proving himself to be a reliable and hard-working member of the team. He was unfailingly personable and courteous and as a result was popular amongst his colleagues and peers.

April 18, 2012, Jake managed Carlo indirectly at Control Risks


Experience

Founder & Director

Enquirisk

May 2013 – Present / London

An innovative online platform that helps organisation tap into a global pool of selected political risk specialists - quickly, efficiently, on-demand. 


Senior Analyst

Control Risks

December 2005 – April 2012

Lead political risk analyst for Russia and other parts of the CIS. Helped dozens of FTSE100 companies make crucial investment decisions. Dr. Gallo has scoped, managed and delivered a wide range of complex and detailed risk assessment projects, virtually in all sectors of the Russian economy. Areas of expertise include political, operational and security risks to business.


Research Officer

Nuffield College, University of Oxford

January 2005 – July 2005 (7 months)

Assisted two professors with their research projects on voting behaviour and party systems in Western Europe. Helped their quantitative analysis of electoral data.


Lecturer in ‘Soviet and Post-Soviet Russian Politics’

Royal Holloway, University of London

January 2005 – May 2005 (5 months)

Lectured and examined BA students on 'Soviet and Post-Soviet Russian Politics’ and contributed lectures to a Masters course on ‘Democracy in Comparative Perspective’.


Honors & Awards


Member of the Expert Review College of the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)

Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) 

2010 - present

Pro bono review of applications for ESRC funding in my field of expertise. The ESRC describes itself as "...the UK's largest organisation for funding research on economic and social issues. We support independent, high quality research which has an impact on business, the public sector and the third sector. At any one time we support over 4,000 researchers and postgraduate students in academic institutions and independent research institutes." (from http://www.esrc.ac.uk/about-esrc/)


Additional Honors & Awards

  • 2000-2003: Doctoral Research Fellowship, granted by the LSE Government Department. Three years of funding to cover living expenses while undertaking the PhD.
     
  • 2000-2003: Grant from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), to cover PhD university fees at the LSE.

Languages

English

Full professional proficiency

Russian

Professional working proficiency

Italian

Native proficiency


Education


London School of Economics and Political Science

PhD, Political Science, Russia

2000 – 2004

Highly commended thesis on the proliferation of independent candidates in the territorial district at legislative elections in Russia, 1993-1999. The thesis is available for download here.


Essex Summer School in Social Science Data Analysis, University of Essex

Summer School Certificate, Quantitative techniques for the social sciences

2003 – 2003

Activities and Societies: Modules taken include Multilevel Analysis, and Causal Models and Structural Equations, including training in the MLwiN software.


European University at Saint Petersburg

Visiting student, Russian politics, Russian language

2001 – 2002

Visiting student under the Tempus programme of the EU, as part of my PhD fieldwork.


London School of Economics and Political Science

Masters, Comparative Politics

1999 – 2000


LUISS University, Italy

Bachelor Degree, Political Science / International Relations, Magna cum laude

1993 – 1998


Publications

 

Superforecasting for Business: How Likely?

Paper to be presented at the Superforecasting and Geopolitical Intelligence conference at the London School of Economics (LSE).

Forthcoming (24 October 2015)


The Russia-West Confrontation: Implications for business

Talk delivered at Swedbank’s Oslo and Helsinki offices.

August 2014

Over 100 senior managers from Swedbank’s clients attended the two sessions.


Business risks in Russia: Root causes and future trends

Russia chapter in Jonathan Reuvid (ed.), Managing Business Risk: A Practical Guide to Protecting Your Business, 7th, 8th and 9th Editions, Kogan Page

2012, 2013 and 2014

This is the Russia chapter within the edited book "Managing Business Risk", which is published each year in hard copy and digital versions under the auspices of the Institute of Risk Management and the Institute of Directors in London.


Expert Judgement in the Assessment of Political Risk: Back to Basics

Paper presented at the XVII SISP Annual conference, 12–14 September 2013, University of Florence – Department of Political and Social Sciences

September 13, 2013

‘Expert judgement’ accounts for much of the political risk analytical work carried out by practitioners, whether in a business-consulting or state intelligence setting. Relying on ‘expert judgement’ is inevitable because practitioners rarely have the time or data required for the application of more rigorous social science approaches. However, ‘expert judgement’ can and should become more rigorous by paying closer attention to social science approaches, in addition to relying on “structured techniques” and to fighting cognitive bias. In particular, I propose to use explicit causal models (ECMs) to structure the thinking process that goes into expert judgments. This method promises to improve the transparency of risk assessments, to enhance opportunities for peer reviews and for the systematic evaluation of their quality. While no method can guarantee accurate prediction, this approach can help decision makers discern which set of forecasts deserve what level of confidence.


Strain in the EU-Ukraine-Russia Energy Triangle

Global Policy Journal

March 23, 2012

Published in March 2012, the article argues that Ukraine’s  tug-of-war with Russia over the pricing of its Russian gas imports should be watched closely by the EU, which receives 20% of its gas supply via Ukraine and which suffered record supply disruptions in 2009, the last time a similar price dispute escalated. After having accepted Ukraine into its Energy Community in 2011, the EU is rightly making further financial and diplomatic support conditional on Ukraine liberalising its domestic gas market. Those reforms, however, run counter the interests of well-connected local business magnates. Coupled, with EU concerns over the jailing of Ukrainian opposition leader Yuliya Timoshenko, Ukraine’s resistance to reforms is cornering it into a difficult negotiating position with Russian Gazprom, which may well gain a stake in Ukraine’s gas transportation system (GTS) in exchange for a discount. Alternatively, Timoshenko’s release towards the end of 2012 may lead the EU to counterbalance Russia’s growing leverage. In any case, however, vested interests are likely to continue hinder the liberalisation of Ukraine’s domestic gas market, the only credible way to reduce energy security threats to the EU stemming from periodic Ukraine-Russia tussles.

Find article here.